Climate implications for Southern Africa and Mozambique

Africa is one of the continents most at risk from climate change. [1] Observed temperatures have indicated a warming trend since the 1960s and IPCC projections suggest that annual temperatures in the region will rise by 3.4 degrees Celsius. [2]

Some 40% of the people displaced by the 2007 flood of the Zambezi River valley have since returned to the more fertile flood plains [Photo: WFP/Francesca Erdelmann]

In southern Africa, annual rainfall is likely to decrease, with a higher mean rainfall in the northeast region, while the south and centre is expected to be drier. [3]  Only a smaller pocket of the northeast is expected to become wetter – and it is unclear where the geographic division between the ‘wetter’ northeast and ‘dryer’ south/central regions will be. The models generally agree on a drying trend for much of the 21st century, and some suggest shorter rainy seasons. [4] Despite the expected drop in overall rainfall for the region, most models agree that what rainfall there is, will fall in a smaller area in the northeast. This suggests that the severity and incidence of heavy precipitation events in the northeast – including Mozambique – is expected to rise. [5]

Mozambique - already more frequently and severely affected by natural disasters than virtually any other country in Africa [6] - is therefore expected to see more precipitation in fewer, more extreme events. [7] The frequency and severity of flooding in Mozambique is expected to increase as a result. In addition, with the expected change in sea water temperatures, the west Indian Ocean tropical cyclones are predicted to be more severe and more frequent in the future – however there is little detailed meteorological modelling on how these storm patterns would evolve.

 

 

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[1] IPCC WG 2 Report

[2] IPCC WG 1 Report

[3] IPCC WG 2 Report

[4] KNMI, Changes in extreme weather in Africa under global warming, p.1

[5] RC/RC Climate Centre, Projected changes in extreme precipitation in Africa under global warming. Part 1: Southern Africa, p.3

[6] ODI, Mozambique: A case study in the role of the affected state in humanitarian action, 2007, p.5

[7] RC/RC Climate Centre