Introduction
The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded that, in the last century, global temperatures have increased by 0.7 degrees Centigrade, with the last eleven warmest years on record occurring in the last 12 years [1]. Human induced climate change is now unequivocal and is already modifying patterns of extreme weather such as flooding, cyclones and droughts.
This is all too apparent to those engaged in humanitarian action. The number of recorded disasters – where the impact of a natural hazard event overwhelmed coping capacity – has doubled to over 400 per year in the past two decades, while nine of out every ten recorded disasters are now climate related. [2]
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| Disasters are more damaging in developing countries where the ability to cope is low due to the lack of adequate infrastructures, resources and assets. Bangladesh, November 2007 [Photo: IFRC/Areefa Islam] |
These disasters are also having a greater impact. In the decade 1984-1993, 1.6 billion people were affected by natural disasters, compared with 2.6 billion in the following decade (1994-2003). In constant dollars, disaster costs between 1990 and 1999 were more than 15 times higher (US$652 billion in material losses) than they were between 1950 and 1959 (US$38 billion at 1998 values)
[3]. Between 2005 and 2006, natural disasters killed 120,000 people affecting 271 million more and caused economic losses totalling US$250 billion.
[4]
While disasters can strike anywhere on the planet, they are most damaging in developing countries where they can rapidly overwhelm local coping mechanisms. Humanitarian disasters occur as a result of people’s exposure to hazards and their degree of vulnerability.
Vulnerability can be viewed as the capacity of individuals, communities and societies to cope with the impact of hazards with suffering a long-term setback to their livelihood. The degree of vulnerability is determined by underlying socio-economic factors and this is a major reason why poorer people – who are ill-prepared with inadequate shelter, assets and social support mechanisms - are most affected by disasters. The World Bank reports that over 97 percent of disaster deaths occur in developing countries, and that these deaths can be directly correlated to poverty levels. [5]
By exposing people to more intense hazards, climate change is increasing the risk of humanitarian disasters, especially in areas where people are already more vulnerable. In this way, climate change threatens to be a ‘tipping point’ where extreme climatic events exacerbate existing vulnerabilities for communities in disaster-prone regions.
More extreme climatic events are predicted for the future. In the ‘best case’ and ‘business as usual’ scenarios, the IPCC predicts that we can expect a further increase of anything between one to four degrees Celsius by 2050. [6]Meteorologists maintain that even a one degree centigrade increase in tropical sea surface temperature is likely to result in a three to five percent increase in cyclone wind-speed [7], leading to more powerful hurricanes and cyclones such as Hurricane Katrina and Cyclone Nargis.
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[1] UNFCCC, http://unfccc.int/essential_background/feeling_the_heat/items/2917.php
[2] CRED 2007b, Annual Disaster Statistical Review 2006 (P. Hoyois et al.), Brussels, May 2007, pp. 18-25. (http://www.em-dat.net/documents/Annual Disaster Statistical Review 2006.pdf)
[3] Idem.
[4]Humanitarian implications of climate change; mapping emerging trends and risk hotspots for humanitarian actors, Maplecroft-OCHA-CARE, August 2008.
[5] World Bank 2004, An Adaptation Mosaic (Mathur, Burton and van Aalst eds.)
[6] IPCC, 4AR, Synthesis Report, 2007 (www.ipcc.ch)
[7] http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/~tk/manuscripts/IWTC_Summary.pdf